The Tigers are bringing six qualifiers to NCAA’s for the second year in a row. That number could potentially jump up to seven if anyone drops out at 149, where Josh Edmond is an alternate. If he were to enter he would come in as the 33 seed in the pigtail match. Right now the Tigers have two top eight seeds, one top twenty, and three lower than that. I think the seeds are okay for the most part but I’ll dive into thoughts with each wrestler.
Last season the Tigers finished 14th with just two All-Americans and will be looking to have a similar result or better this year. Aeoden Sinclair comes in as a clear title contender but may have one of the toughest draws to get there. Cam Steed as the seven is in a great spot to make a finals run, or at least be in the semis Friday night. Sinclair and Steed will be carrying the team finish unless one of the other wrestlers can go on a crazy run. Top 15 would be a solid finish but top 10 is looking unlikely at the moment.
125lbs: #32 Mack Mauger (22-14)
- Pigtail Round: #33 Jace Shafer (BLOO), 23-8
- Potential First Round: #1 Luke Lilledahl (PSU), 20-0
Mauger feels low to me as he has wins over #18 Spencer Moore (ILL), #19 Kysen Terukina (UNC), and #20 Diego Sotelo (MICH). He does have losses to #25 Kael Lauridsen (NEB) and #27 Brady Roark (SDSU), but I thought his overall resume would have kept him out of the pigtail matchup. Once you get past the top 22ish though the margins are thin and he was last one in for At-Larges.
His first opponent Schafer spent four seasons as a spot starter for WVU before transferring for his senior year and finishing in true second at the MAC tournament. His best win this year came at that tournament with an upset over Blake West (NIU) who ended up not qualifying. I’m confidently taking Mauger in this one to advance to the top seed Lilledahl.
A Missouri native, Lilledahl is my pick for the title after finishing 3rd last season. Which means I’m taking him over Mauger and it may not be close but that is a testament to Lilledahl’s skill. In the consolations Mauger then runs into a very tough Big 12 match with either #16 Ezekiel Witt (NDSU) or #17 Jett Strickenberger (WVU). Witt just beat Strickenberger for 3rd at Big 12’s and now gets him off the scale so I have Mauger vs Strickenberger. It was a close 4-1 match in the dual with a late Strickenberger takedown deciding it. At NCAA’s in consolations anything can happen and Mauger is gritty but I lean Strickenberger.
If Mauger does happen to win that first match his second round could be an even better matchup; likely seeing either #15 Koda Holeman (CP) or #18 Spencer Moore (ILL). I think both of those matches are likely to be tight but winnable, and we’ve seen Mauger beat Moore this season. That would put Mauger in the round of 16 where he’d likely see a top ten seed so I don’t have him past that. I think 1-2 is most likely but at a chaotic 125 he has potential to get some upsets and make a decent run at his first NCAA’s.
