First Round Match: #4 Brock Mauller vs. #29 Matt Zovistoski, APST
Potential Second Round Match: #4 Mauller vs. #13 Anthony Artalona PENN OR #20 Tommy Thorn, MINN
Potential Quarter: #4 Mauller vs. #5 Matt Kolodzik, PRIN
Potential Semi: #4 Mauller vs. #1 Anthony Ashnault, RUT
Potential Final: #4 Mauller vs. #2 Micah Jordan, TOSU OR #3 Mitch Finesilver, DUKE
Thoughts on seed fairness: Mauller got about as high of a seed as he possibly could have gotten. Going in my expectation was somewhere between a 4 and 8 seed. Mauller went 6-2 vs. the field here. The wins were over #7 Gfeller, #8 Degen, #15 Thomsen, #19 Martin, #23 Maruca and #24 Schuyler. Both of Mauller’s losses were to #8 Degen.
Thoughts on draw: Mauller has an interesting draw. He is a huge favorite in his first match and he matches up well with Thorn and Artalona, so I like him to advance to the quarters here. In the quarters he has Kolodzik. Kolodzik is really good positionally and can be hard to score on, but Kolodzik also really struggles to score and is not elite on bottom. If Mauller can get to his offense I have a hard time seeing Kolodzik out length or outscramble him. I do not believe Kolodzik can ride him either. I have Mauller taking a close win and advancing to the semis. Ashnault is a monster on top and in his senior season is probably a bridge too far for Mauller here, although if he can keep it close on his feet he has a chance against anyone. I predict Mauller to lose to Ashnault and believe he will see either #6 O’Connor or #7 Gfeller. If it Gfeller I like Mauller to beat him again and I believe he would also best O’Connor to move into the third place bout. For third place I believe Mauller would either see Kolodzik again or #3 Finesilver. I think Mauller will show a but of fatigue at the end of a tough tournament and take fourth here. If Mauller loses to Kolodzik he would likely see either #10 Lugo or #15 Thomsen in the match to place. I like Mauller to place here over either guy. The margins of Mauller’s matches are typically close, so I am really hoping he is locked in and ready for a lot of wars, because there is a lot of parity in this weight class.
Prediction of placement: I have Mauller taking fourth, but anything from 1st to R12 would not stun me. This weight class is wide open here.