Conquistadors
02-26-2006, 12:32 PM
Missouri Outlook (Feb 25, 2006)
Missouri has had a truly outstanding season and has to date shown that they are a top 10 team. Aside from their two stars, they have received very strong performances from the supporting cast. If everyone wrestles to expectation, they have greater than a 50% chance to finish in the top 10.
Below is my slightly biased assessment of how the Tigers wrestlers will do at Big FIVES and nationals. I’m using and national rankings and a very thoughtful post on themat (http://www.thematforums.com/myforum/?sh ... forum_id=3 (http://www.thematforums.com/myforum/?show_topic=15348&forum_id=3)) as guides to likely seeding. Keep in mind that with only five wrestlers, that the #2 and #3 seeds are indistinguishable and the #4 and #5 seeds are indistinguishable. Also, the Big V will send the top three in each weight plus 8 wild cards to the NCAA Championships.
125. Austin DeVoe (29-12). Austin has had a solid season (and career) with Missouri. He just has not been able to climb higher than the 15-20 range in the rankings. Hopefully
BIG FIVES. 4/5 seed. With returning AAs Hazewinkle and Scott and Nebraska’s Donoho ranked in the top-10, it will be very difficult for Austin to finish in the top three. Thus Austin will need a wild card in order to advance to the NCAAs. I would give Austin at least a 60% chance to get a wild card, given his ranking and that of other potential Big V wild card candidates.
NCAAs. Ranked approximately 17th, if he makes it the NCAAs Austin will in all likelihood not be seeded, even if he upsets Donaho at the conference tournament. Given his performance this season and depending on his draw, a Round-of-16 finish would be a good performance and a Round-of-12 performance would be a stellar performance for Austin. Worst case scenario would probably be a 1-2 performance.
133. Tyler McCormick (24-6) has had a solid season, with occasional signs of his having top-notch potential (such as his recent victory of UT-Chattanooga’s Keller). Next season Tyler should be a consistent top-10 wrestler.
BIG FIVES. 2/3 seed. Without an upset either way, Tyler looks like the #2 wrestler in the Big V. He probably has no more than a 10-20% chance to beat Ok State’s Morgan, though if he did, that would probably land him a seed at the national tournament.
NCAAs. Ranked approximately 16th, Tyler has an outside chance of a low seed. An average performance for Tyler will get him to the Round-of-16 and a good performance will get him to the Round-of-12. Tyler has an outside shot at AA—frankly, I won’t be that surprised if he reaches the podium as he is a very talented wrestler.
141. Chris McCormick (28-9), as with his teammates in the two lighter weights, has had a solid season, though he has suffered some bigger losses. As with Austin, this is his last chance to qualify for the NCAA tournament.
BIG FIVES. 4/5 seed. With Gallick and Ware at the elite level, and with Chris having lost to Nebraska’s Moyer, Chris has a tough assignment to qualify for nationals. If he finishes 4th, he probably has 60% chance of receiving a wild card.
NCAAs. Ranked 18th in two polls, unranked in two polls, and ranked 11th in Wrestling Report, Chris will not be seeded. With a good performance and depending on his draw, Chris could win a couple matches at the NCAAs. A Round-of-16 finish would be an excellent finish for Chris.
149. Josh Wagner (19-12) has had an exciting and inconsistent first year. He’s recently missed a number of matches with a rib injury, but seems fine now. He wrestles with reckless abandon, which gives him a chance against very good wrestlers, but also makes him vulnerable to lesser quality opponents. I think that Josh will make noise next year.
BIG FIVES. I’m not sure if he’ll receive a 2/3 or 4/5 seed. Either way, he has a very strong chance to finish third. If he finishes fourth, he will most likely not receive a wild card.
NCAAs. No seed if he qualifies. If he wrestles well, Josh could win one or two matches. If he performs very well, a Round-of-16 finish is a possibility.
157. Michael Chandler (16-12), as with Josh Wagner, has looked good at times and not-so-good at other times. Unlike Josh, however, he isn’t the risk taker, but is more conventional.
BIG FIVES. 2/3 seed. If Michael wrestles as well as he did during the Big V dual season, he’ll finish 3rd; this is important, as a 4th place finish will probably not earn him a wild card.
NCAAs. Although he is ranked 15th by WR, he is unranked by the other four major rankings and will not receive a seed. Depending on his draw, Michael could win one or two matches at the NCAAs. A Round-of-16 finish would be an excellent finish for Michael.
165. Matt Pell (29-3) has had an excellent season, with his only losses coming to top-five opponents. Matt hits me as more of a physical brawler than a highly technical wrestler. However, looking at his record, I don’t think that I having been giving him his due as he really has been remarkably consistent this year. He almost always wins the take-down battle, is good at riding, and rarely gets ridden. All of this augurs well for his post-season success. Furthermore, the last two years, Matt has performed his best in the post-season.
BIG FIVES. 2/3 seed. Matt will probably have to battle Travis Paulson for the right to meet Johny-I’m-so-hot-Hendricks in the finals. This weight has a good chance to send all five to the national tournament.
NCAAs. #6 seed is likely and probably a good estimate of where he’ll finish, somewhere in the mid-AA range. If Matt follows his form from the last two years and wrestles above his seed, he might reach the 3rd-4th place match.
174. Ben Askren (38-0). What more can you say about a guy who has 25 falls and 7 technical falls? I will be very surprised if he doesn’t win wrestler of the year for the Big V Conference.
BIG FIVES. #1 seed. Ben is as close to a “sure thing” in the tournament as there is in college wrestling today (and I don’t believe in the concept of sure things). Let’s just say he is an overwhelming favorite. Although Wes Roberts kept it close with Ben in their first meeting, if they meet again, don’t look for repeat-- i.e., Ben will dominate the second meeting.
NCAAs. #1 seed. I really don’t see anyone aside from Jake Herbert who can remotely compete with Ben. I think he is just too powerful for Mark Perry. Now Herbert is a more interesting match for Ben. I’ve had the opportunity to watch Herbert the last two years quite a bit, and I think that he will present a formidable challenge. He will be one of the few who can match Ben in terms of power, and Herbert is a good scrambler (for those who think that Ben is just a scrambler and is not very strong, I have a bridge to sell you). Also, Herbert is a very good fundamental wrestler. What worries me, is that since Ben has overwhelmed most of his opponents this year, he doesn’t worry about getting sloppy, taking a bad shot, or potentially getting into a dangerous position, as he has the confidence to get out of it and be able to make up for anything he gives up. With Herbert, if Ben gets sloppy he could pay dearly. (I know the Ok State faithful would balk at this, but I think that this year’s Herbert would be a good match for last year’s Pendleton.) In a match with Herbert, Ben will have to be aggressive (otherwise he isn’t himself), but a bit more careful than he usually is.
If Ben wins the national championship, dominates up until the final, and wins a non-close bout in the finals, I think he will win the Outstanding Wrestler and Hodge Awards. Cole Konrad is likewise very deserving of praise.
184. Raymond Jordan (30-9) has had an excellent freshman year. He’s had some impressive wins, and some disappointing losses. On balance, however, he has been quite consistent. Look for him to be a consistent top-10 wrestler for the next three years.
BIG FIVES. 2/3 seed. The critical match is the semifinal match (with Nebraska’s Vince Jones?), because a 2nd place finish may get Raymond a seed, whereas a 3rd place finish probably won’t. Given the talent at this weight (all five may go to nationals), any of these guys could lose two matches and finish last (though Kurt Backes has a greater chance of finishing in 1st and Rusty Blackmon has a greater chance of finishing 5th).
NCAAs. A 4 in 10 chance of a #12 seed. If Raymond wrestles well, he has a 50-50 chance of reaching the Round-of-16 or the Round-of-12. An AA finish is not completely out of the realm of possibility, but will take a superb effort for Raymond.
197 Jeff Foust (14-5) has been hobbled by injuries for much of the season. When he’s been healthy, he generally has wrestled well. With Rosholt, Padden, and Flaggert, 197 pounds has lots of talent. Jeff has generally wrestled these guys tough (on the other hand, he barely beat the weakest member of this group, Joe Curran of ISU). This weight class will probably receive a wild card.
BIG FIVES. 4/5 seed. Can Jeff beat Rosholt, Padden, or Flaggert? If he can, it would guarantee a trip to the national tournament. But I’m not sure it would land him a seed at the national tournament, given how much of the season he’s missed.
NCAAs. Ranked approximately 15th, it is unlikely that Jeff would get a seed, unless he is the Big V champ (which he was two years ago). Jeff will have to wrestle well to reach the Round-of-12; an AA finish is possible, but would be a surprise.
Hwt. Sean Connole (18-22) has battled hard this season, but physically wasn’t able to compete with many Div I wrestlers. This weight class will probably not receive a wild card, thus Sean would have to finish 3rd in order to qualify for nationals. That is unlikely, but not out of the question as Nebraska’s May and ISU Schopf are not elite wrestlers (but have had more success than Sean).
BIG FIVES. 4/5 seed. Sean will have to wrestle very well to finish 4th.
NCAAs. Highly unlikely he’ll qualify. Come on, Sean, prove me wrong!
Missouri has had a truly outstanding season and has to date shown that they are a top 10 team. Aside from their two stars, they have received very strong performances from the supporting cast. If everyone wrestles to expectation, they have greater than a 50% chance to finish in the top 10.
Below is my slightly biased assessment of how the Tigers wrestlers will do at Big FIVES and nationals. I’m using and national rankings and a very thoughtful post on themat (http://www.thematforums.com/myforum/?sh ... forum_id=3 (http://www.thematforums.com/myforum/?show_topic=15348&forum_id=3)) as guides to likely seeding. Keep in mind that with only five wrestlers, that the #2 and #3 seeds are indistinguishable and the #4 and #5 seeds are indistinguishable. Also, the Big V will send the top three in each weight plus 8 wild cards to the NCAA Championships.
125. Austin DeVoe (29-12). Austin has had a solid season (and career) with Missouri. He just has not been able to climb higher than the 15-20 range in the rankings. Hopefully
BIG FIVES. 4/5 seed. With returning AAs Hazewinkle and Scott and Nebraska’s Donoho ranked in the top-10, it will be very difficult for Austin to finish in the top three. Thus Austin will need a wild card in order to advance to the NCAAs. I would give Austin at least a 60% chance to get a wild card, given his ranking and that of other potential Big V wild card candidates.
NCAAs. Ranked approximately 17th, if he makes it the NCAAs Austin will in all likelihood not be seeded, even if he upsets Donaho at the conference tournament. Given his performance this season and depending on his draw, a Round-of-16 finish would be a good performance and a Round-of-12 performance would be a stellar performance for Austin. Worst case scenario would probably be a 1-2 performance.
133. Tyler McCormick (24-6) has had a solid season, with occasional signs of his having top-notch potential (such as his recent victory of UT-Chattanooga’s Keller). Next season Tyler should be a consistent top-10 wrestler.
BIG FIVES. 2/3 seed. Without an upset either way, Tyler looks like the #2 wrestler in the Big V. He probably has no more than a 10-20% chance to beat Ok State’s Morgan, though if he did, that would probably land him a seed at the national tournament.
NCAAs. Ranked approximately 16th, Tyler has an outside chance of a low seed. An average performance for Tyler will get him to the Round-of-16 and a good performance will get him to the Round-of-12. Tyler has an outside shot at AA—frankly, I won’t be that surprised if he reaches the podium as he is a very talented wrestler.
141. Chris McCormick (28-9), as with his teammates in the two lighter weights, has had a solid season, though he has suffered some bigger losses. As with Austin, this is his last chance to qualify for the NCAA tournament.
BIG FIVES. 4/5 seed. With Gallick and Ware at the elite level, and with Chris having lost to Nebraska’s Moyer, Chris has a tough assignment to qualify for nationals. If he finishes 4th, he probably has 60% chance of receiving a wild card.
NCAAs. Ranked 18th in two polls, unranked in two polls, and ranked 11th in Wrestling Report, Chris will not be seeded. With a good performance and depending on his draw, Chris could win a couple matches at the NCAAs. A Round-of-16 finish would be an excellent finish for Chris.
149. Josh Wagner (19-12) has had an exciting and inconsistent first year. He’s recently missed a number of matches with a rib injury, but seems fine now. He wrestles with reckless abandon, which gives him a chance against very good wrestlers, but also makes him vulnerable to lesser quality opponents. I think that Josh will make noise next year.
BIG FIVES. I’m not sure if he’ll receive a 2/3 or 4/5 seed. Either way, he has a very strong chance to finish third. If he finishes fourth, he will most likely not receive a wild card.
NCAAs. No seed if he qualifies. If he wrestles well, Josh could win one or two matches. If he performs very well, a Round-of-16 finish is a possibility.
157. Michael Chandler (16-12), as with Josh Wagner, has looked good at times and not-so-good at other times. Unlike Josh, however, he isn’t the risk taker, but is more conventional.
BIG FIVES. 2/3 seed. If Michael wrestles as well as he did during the Big V dual season, he’ll finish 3rd; this is important, as a 4th place finish will probably not earn him a wild card.
NCAAs. Although he is ranked 15th by WR, he is unranked by the other four major rankings and will not receive a seed. Depending on his draw, Michael could win one or two matches at the NCAAs. A Round-of-16 finish would be an excellent finish for Michael.
165. Matt Pell (29-3) has had an excellent season, with his only losses coming to top-five opponents. Matt hits me as more of a physical brawler than a highly technical wrestler. However, looking at his record, I don’t think that I having been giving him his due as he really has been remarkably consistent this year. He almost always wins the take-down battle, is good at riding, and rarely gets ridden. All of this augurs well for his post-season success. Furthermore, the last two years, Matt has performed his best in the post-season.
BIG FIVES. 2/3 seed. Matt will probably have to battle Travis Paulson for the right to meet Johny-I’m-so-hot-Hendricks in the finals. This weight has a good chance to send all five to the national tournament.
NCAAs. #6 seed is likely and probably a good estimate of where he’ll finish, somewhere in the mid-AA range. If Matt follows his form from the last two years and wrestles above his seed, he might reach the 3rd-4th place match.
174. Ben Askren (38-0). What more can you say about a guy who has 25 falls and 7 technical falls? I will be very surprised if he doesn’t win wrestler of the year for the Big V Conference.
BIG FIVES. #1 seed. Ben is as close to a “sure thing” in the tournament as there is in college wrestling today (and I don’t believe in the concept of sure things). Let’s just say he is an overwhelming favorite. Although Wes Roberts kept it close with Ben in their first meeting, if they meet again, don’t look for repeat-- i.e., Ben will dominate the second meeting.
NCAAs. #1 seed. I really don’t see anyone aside from Jake Herbert who can remotely compete with Ben. I think he is just too powerful for Mark Perry. Now Herbert is a more interesting match for Ben. I’ve had the opportunity to watch Herbert the last two years quite a bit, and I think that he will present a formidable challenge. He will be one of the few who can match Ben in terms of power, and Herbert is a good scrambler (for those who think that Ben is just a scrambler and is not very strong, I have a bridge to sell you). Also, Herbert is a very good fundamental wrestler. What worries me, is that since Ben has overwhelmed most of his opponents this year, he doesn’t worry about getting sloppy, taking a bad shot, or potentially getting into a dangerous position, as he has the confidence to get out of it and be able to make up for anything he gives up. With Herbert, if Ben gets sloppy he could pay dearly. (I know the Ok State faithful would balk at this, but I think that this year’s Herbert would be a good match for last year’s Pendleton.) In a match with Herbert, Ben will have to be aggressive (otherwise he isn’t himself), but a bit more careful than he usually is.
If Ben wins the national championship, dominates up until the final, and wins a non-close bout in the finals, I think he will win the Outstanding Wrestler and Hodge Awards. Cole Konrad is likewise very deserving of praise.
184. Raymond Jordan (30-9) has had an excellent freshman year. He’s had some impressive wins, and some disappointing losses. On balance, however, he has been quite consistent. Look for him to be a consistent top-10 wrestler for the next three years.
BIG FIVES. 2/3 seed. The critical match is the semifinal match (with Nebraska’s Vince Jones?), because a 2nd place finish may get Raymond a seed, whereas a 3rd place finish probably won’t. Given the talent at this weight (all five may go to nationals), any of these guys could lose two matches and finish last (though Kurt Backes has a greater chance of finishing in 1st and Rusty Blackmon has a greater chance of finishing 5th).
NCAAs. A 4 in 10 chance of a #12 seed. If Raymond wrestles well, he has a 50-50 chance of reaching the Round-of-16 or the Round-of-12. An AA finish is not completely out of the realm of possibility, but will take a superb effort for Raymond.
197 Jeff Foust (14-5) has been hobbled by injuries for much of the season. When he’s been healthy, he generally has wrestled well. With Rosholt, Padden, and Flaggert, 197 pounds has lots of talent. Jeff has generally wrestled these guys tough (on the other hand, he barely beat the weakest member of this group, Joe Curran of ISU). This weight class will probably receive a wild card.
BIG FIVES. 4/5 seed. Can Jeff beat Rosholt, Padden, or Flaggert? If he can, it would guarantee a trip to the national tournament. But I’m not sure it would land him a seed at the national tournament, given how much of the season he’s missed.
NCAAs. Ranked approximately 15th, it is unlikely that Jeff would get a seed, unless he is the Big V champ (which he was two years ago). Jeff will have to wrestle well to reach the Round-of-12; an AA finish is possible, but would be a surprise.
Hwt. Sean Connole (18-22) has battled hard this season, but physically wasn’t able to compete with many Div I wrestlers. This weight class will probably not receive a wild card, thus Sean would have to finish 3rd in order to qualify for nationals. That is unlikely, but not out of the question as Nebraska’s May and ISU Schopf are not elite wrestlers (but have had more success than Sean).
BIG FIVES. 4/5 seed. Sean will have to wrestle very well to finish 4th.
NCAAs. Highly unlikely he’ll qualify. Come on, Sean, prove me wrong!